The TACO Doctrine: A Study in Presidential Evasion

In the grand theater of economic policy, it is often tempting to mistake the clamor of cymbals for the resonance of conviction. Nowhere has this confusion been more persistently dramatized than in the peculiar choreography of President Donald Trump’s trade strategy—a spectacle of bold beginnings followed, almost invariably, by a retreat into bathos. The term now catching currency among economists and even the more impish bond traders is “TACO,” an acronym both zesty and damning: Trump Always Chickens Out.

Let us be clear. Tariffs are not a novelty. They are, in fact, among the oldest tools in the nation-state’s kit of self-inflicted wounds. Yet they have, on occasion, served a purpose—usually ill-defined, sometimes unintentionally. What is remarkable in the Trumpian era is not the resort to tariffs but the theatricality of their announcement, the drama of their declaration, and the predictability of their subsequent dilution.

At the outset, we were promised a new age of economic nationalism. American steel and aluminum would rise again; the trade deficit would melt like morning frost; China would be brought to heel; Mexico would pay—presumably in both currency and humility. In short, we were to believe that the businessman-president, with his infinite swagger, would do for the American worker what decades of globalist ne’er-do-wells could not.

And yet, time and again, when the moment of maximal leverage arrived—when the game required resolve rather than rhetoric—the president, to use the economic term of art, folded. What was touted as a 25% tariff would become a 10% deferral, then a partial exemption, then, most ignobly, a handshake deal signed in gold Sharpie and undone by Tuesday.

The Chinese, whose sense of irony is only matched by their patience, mastered the dance. They endured insult, tariffs, and tweets, only to find themselves, six months later, at a negotiating table set with the same empty platitudes and a president who craved applause more than leverage. The so-called “Phase One Deal,” that pinnacle of Trumpian tradecraft, produced not transformation, but soybeans—modestly purchased, ambiguously promised, and mostly forgotten.

To invoke Galbraith himself, one is reminded of his observation that “the modern conservative is engaged in one of man’s oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.” The modern Trumpist is engaged in something similar, though more comical: the search for a superior branding strategy for economic cowardice.

It is here that the TACO doctrine finds its true utility—not merely as insult, but as diagnosis. It speaks to a governing style where belligerence is substituted for strategy, and capitulation is camouflaged by fanfare. Trump’s tariff regime was less a doctrine than a dopamine hit. Each announcement brought a surge of attention, a brief rise in approval among the aggrieved, and then, once the cameras turned away, the predictable slide into ambiguity, exemption, and surrender.

In the end, what we are left with is not a trade realignment but a parable. A lesson in how bluster, unmoored from discipline, leaves neither friend nor foe certain of intent. TACO, then, is not just an acronym. It is an epitaph for a strategy that mistook shouting for strength and compromise for conquest.

As Galbraith might have said, though perhaps with more grace than this humble interpreter: “In economics, as in politics, it is not enough to be loudly wrong. One must, at the very least, avoid being repeatedly ridiculous.”

The time it takes for the stock market to recover to previous highs after a large sell-off depends on several factors, including the severity of the crash, economic conditions, policy responses, and investor sentiment. Here are some historical examples of major market crashes and their recovery times:

Historical Stock Market Recoveries

1929 - The Great Depression

• Crash: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost nearly 90% of its value from 1929 to 1932.

• Recovery Time: 25 years (1929 peak regained in 1954).

1987 - Black Monday

• Crash: The Dow fell 22.6% in a single day (October 19, 1987).

• Recovery Time: Less than 2 years (returned to pre-crash highs by September 1989).

2000-2002 - Dot-com Bubble

• Crash: The NASDAQ fell 78% from its 2000 peak.

• Recovery Time: 15 years (NASDAQ regained its 2000 highs in 2015).

2008-2009 - Global Financial Crisis

• Crash: The S&P 500 fell 57% from its 2007 peak to its 2009 bottom.

• Recovery Time: 5.5 years (reached previous highs in 2013).

2020 - COVID-19 Crash

• Crash: The S&P 500 dropped 33% in just over a month (February-March 2020).

• Recovery Time: 5 months (returned to previous highs by August 2020).

Factors That Influence Recovery Time

• Severity of the Sell-Off – Mild corrections (10-20% drop) typically recover within months to a year, while major crashes (40%+ losses) can take several years or decades.

• Economic Conditions – Strong economic fundamentals, low interest rates, and stimulus measures can accelerate recovery.

• Government & Central Bank Actions – Aggressive monetary policies (e.g., Federal Reserve rate cuts, quantitative easing) help markets bounce back faster.

• Investor Sentiment & Confidence – If investors remain cautious, recovery can be slow. If optimism returns quickly, markets may rebound faster.

• Technological & Business Cycles – Certain sectors (e.g., tech) tend to recover faster than others (e.g., financials in 2008).

General Recovery Expectations

• Small sell-offs (5-10%) – Weeks to months

• Moderate corrections (10-20%) – Months to a year

• Bear markets (20-50%) – 1 to 5 years

• Severe crashes (50%+ losses) – 5 to 25 years

Bottom Line

Every market crash is unique, and while some recover quickly (e.g., COVID-19 in 2020), others take decades (Great Depression). Historically, the stock market always recovers over time, but the speed depends on economic resilience, policy actions, and investor confidence.

Moosehead Breweries Introduces the “Presidential Pack” Amid Trade Tensions

Canada’s oldest brewery, Moosehead Breweries, is making a bold statement in response to trade tensions sparked by President Donald Trump. The New Brunswick-based brewery has launched the “Presidential Pack”, a massive case containing 1,461 cans of its Canadian Lager—one for each day of Trump's four-year term.

Moosehead’s Director of Marketing, Karen Grigg framed the promotion as a lighthearted response to political uncertainty. "If the start of 2025 has taught us anything, it will take determination to weather four years of political uncertainty—and what better way to make it through each day than with a truly Canadian beer," she said.

The Presidential Pack retails for CAD 3,490 ($2,428 USD) and is available in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Ontario. Trevor Grant, Vice President of Sales and Marketing, revealed that the idea emerged as Moosehead’s team discussed tariffs and trade challenges with the U.S. administration. "Obviously, it's a bit of a difficult situation, so trying to maybe have a little bit of fun with it," he explained.

Grant also noted that Canadian shoppers are increasingly looking for locally made products and that Moosehead sees this as an opportunity to strengthen local support. "We do think this is a real opportunity for us," he said. He emphasized the company’s deep community ties, adding, "We operate in a small community here in St. John, New Brunswick, and we like to stay connected to our community and give back. We'd like to see Canadians do the same thing and buy local."

The Presidential Pack is the latest act of Canadian defiance against Trump's tariffs, which have affected Canada, Mexico, and China. Trump has also insulted Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, referring to him dismissively as a "governor".

Meanwhile, the U.S. liquor and spirits industry is already feeling the pushback.

Lawson Whiting, CEO of Jack Daniel’s parent company, called the removal of American-made alcohol from Canadian stores “worse than tariffs.” "It's literally taking your sales away," he said, calling the response "very disproportionate" to Trump’s 25% tariff.

Following Prime Minister Trudeau’s announcement that Canada would impose retaliatory 25% tariffs on $155 billion worth of U.S. goods, the Kentucky Distillers’ Association warned of “far-reaching consequences” for the bourbon industry, as 95% of the world’s bourbon comes from Kentucky.

Moosehead Breweries CEO Andrew Oland, in an interview with CTV News, described the tariffs as a “disappointment” and lamented the deteriorating trade relationship between the two nations. We've always had such a close relationship with the United States, and so it's really sad to see this relationship going in a different direction," he said.

With rising trade tensions and a renewed focus on buying local, Moosehead’s satirical marketing move highlights how Canadian businesses creatively respond to these issues—with humor, community pride, and beer.

The idea for the movie "Planet of the Apes" (1968) originated from the 1963 novel La Planète des Singes (translated as Planet of the Apes or Monkey Planet) by Pierre Boulle, a French author best known for The Bridge on the River Kwai.

Origins of the Idea:

Pierre Boulle wrote the novel as a satirical commentary on human nature, evolution, and social structures.

The book tells the story of astronauts who land on a planet ruled by intelligent apes, with humans as the primitive species.

Boulle was inspired by human behavior, evolution, and concerns about civilization's future.

How It Became a Movie:

Producer Arthur P. Jacobs obtained the film rights and pushed for an adaptation.

Rod Serling (creator of The Twilight Zone) wrote an early screenplay that reshaped the story into the 1968 film starring Charlton Heston.

Michael Wilson revised the final screenplay, adding the film’s famous twist ending: the ruined Statue of Liberty reveals that the planet is actually Earth in the future.

Trade between the United States, Mexico, and Canada is extensive and encompasses a variety of goods and services. The top five categories of trade among these countries include:

Automotive Products:

The automotive industry is highly integrated across the three countries, with significant trade in passenger vehicles, trucks, and auto parts. Canada and Mexico are both major sources of U.S. imports and destinations for U.S. exports in this sector. Machinery and Equipment:

Industrial Machinery: This category includes machinery for various industries, such as manufacturing and agriculture. The U.S. exports substantial amounts of machinery to both Canada and Mexico.Electrical and Electronic Equipment:

Electronics: Trade in electronics, including computers, smartphones, and other devices, is significant between these nations.The U.S. imports various electronic products from Mexico and exports electrical equipment to Canada.

Mineral Fuels and Oils:

Energy Products: Crude oil and refined petroleum products are major components of trade, especially between the U.S. and Canada. Canada is a leading supplier of crude oil to the U.S., and there is also notable trade in natural gas and other energy products. 

Agricultural Products:

Food and Beverages: Agricultural trade includes grains, meats, fruits, vegetables, and beverages. The U.S. exports grains and meats to Mexico, while importing fruits, vegetables, and beverages like beer and tequila. Similarly, there is significant agricultural trade between the U.S. and Canada.